Lesson 3

Fed Balance Sheet Mechanics

Track Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) weekly as your primary liquidity indicator. FRED has all components. The direction of Net Liquidity (rising/falling over 4 weeks) predicts near-term market direction more reliably than almost any other indicator.

πŸ“Š Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):

The Fed's balance sheet is the foundation of US dollar liquidity. Understanding its mechanics lets you calculate Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) β€” the true fuel gauge for markets.

Assets Side (What the Fed Owns):

  • Treasuries: US government bonds (~$5 trillion)
  • MBS: Mortgage-backed securities (~$2.5 trillion)
  • Loans and Facilities: Emergency lending programs

When the Fed buys assets (QE), it creates new reserves. When assets mature or are sold (QT), reserves shrink.

Liabilities Side (What the Fed Owes):

  • Bank Reserves: Banks' deposits at the Fed (the 'money' banks can lend)
  • Currency: Physical cash in circulation
  • RRP (RRPONTSYD): Reverse repo β€” cash parked at the Fed overnight
  • TGA (WTREGEN): Treasury's checking account at the Fed

The Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) Formula:

Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) = Fed Total Assets (WALCL) βˆ’ TGA (WTREGEN) βˆ’ RRP (RRPONTSYD)

This formula tells you: How much liquidity is actually available to markets?

  • WALCL is the raw balance sheet (what Fed has created)
  • TGA (WTREGEN) is cash locked in Treasury's account (unavailable to economy)
  • RRP (RRPONTSYD) is cash parked at Fed (not circulating)

Why This Formula Matters:

The headline Fed balance sheet (WALCL) can be misleading. If WALCL is $8 trillion but TGA (WTREGEN) is $800B and RRP (RRPONTSYD) is $2T, only ~$5.2T is actually circulating. Net Liquidity is what moves markets, not WALCL alone.

Check your understanding

Lesson Quiz

Completion unlocks quiz reviews.

Quiz Check

What is the Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) formula and what does it measure?

Quiz Check

The Fed is doing QT (WALCL shrinking by $95B/month), but RRP (RRPONTSYD) is draining by $150B/month. Is Net Liquidity rising or falling?

Quiz Check

Where can you find the data needed to calculate Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY)?

Quiz Check

If Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) has been rising for 4 weeks, what does this predict for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin (BTCUSD)?