Lesson 3
Fed Balance Sheet Mechanics
Track Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) weekly as your primary liquidity indicator. FRED has all components. The direction of Net Liquidity (rising/falling over 4 weeks) predicts near-term market direction more reliably than almost any other indicator.
π Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):
The Fed's balance sheet is the foundation of US dollar liquidity. Understanding its mechanics lets you calculate Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) β the true fuel gauge for markets.
Assets Side (What the Fed Owns):
- Treasuries: US government bonds (~$5 trillion)
- MBS: Mortgage-backed securities (~$2.5 trillion)
- Loans and Facilities: Emergency lending programs
When the Fed buys assets (QE), it creates new reserves. When assets mature or are sold (QT), reserves shrink.
Liabilities Side (What the Fed Owes):
- Bank Reserves: Banks' deposits at the Fed (the 'money' banks can lend)
- Currency: Physical cash in circulation
- RRP (RRPONTSYD): Reverse repo β cash parked at the Fed overnight
- TGA (WTREGEN): Treasury's checking account at the Fed
The Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) Formula:
Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) = Fed Total Assets (WALCL) β TGA (WTREGEN) β RRP (RRPONTSYD)
This formula tells you: How much liquidity is actually available to markets?
- WALCL is the raw balance sheet (what Fed has created)
- TGA (WTREGEN) is cash locked in Treasury's account (unavailable to economy)
- RRP (RRPONTSYD) is cash parked at Fed (not circulating)
Why This Formula Matters:
The headline Fed balance sheet (WALCL) can be misleading. If WALCL is $8 trillion but TGA (WTREGEN) is $800B and RRP (RRPONTSYD) is $2T, only ~$5.2T is actually circulating. Net Liquidity is what moves markets, not WALCL alone.
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
What is the Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) formula and what does it measure?
Quiz Check
The Fed is doing QT (WALCL shrinking by $95B/month), but RRP (RRPONTSYD) is draining by $150B/month. Is Net Liquidity rising or falling?
Quiz Check
Where can you find the data needed to calculate Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY)?
Quiz Check
If Fed Net Liquidity (FED_NET_LIQUIDITY) has been rising for 4 weeks, what does this predict for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin (BTCUSD)?