Lesson 4
The TGA (WTREGEN) & RRP (RRPONTSYD): Liquidity Sinks
Track both TGA (WTREGEN) and RRP (RRPONTSYD) weekly. Their relationship tells you whether Treasury operations are neutral or contractionary. When TGA (WTREGEN) rises and RRP (RRPONTSYD) is already depleted, expect liquidity headwinds for risk assets.
π Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):
TGA (WTREGEN) and RRP (RRPONTSYD) are the two 'liquidity sinks' that determine how much of the Fed's balance sheet is actually available to markets. Understanding them is crucial for liquidity analysis.
Treasury General Account (WTREGEN):
The government's checking account at the Fed. When it rises, it's like a vacuum cleaner sucking cash out of the economy.
- TGA (WTREGEN) rises when: Treasury collects taxes, sells bonds, receives debt ceiling resolution
- TGA (WTREGEN) falls when: Government spends (contractors, benefits, stimulus checks)
- Normal range: $200-400B
- Danger zone: $700B+ while RRP (RRPONTSYD) is low
The debt ceiling dynamic is key: When Treasury can't issue debt (ceiling hit), TGA (WTREGEN) drains β liquidity injection. When ceiling is raised, Treasury refills TGA (WTREGEN) β liquidity drain.
Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD):
A parking lot for excess cash. Money market funds and banks park cash at the Fed overnight when they have nowhere better to put it.
- RRP (RRPONTSYD) high: System has a buffer β cash can be absorbed without hitting reserves
- RRP (RRPONTSYD) low/zero: System is fragile β any cash drain hits reserves directly
- Peak: $2.5T in December 2022
- Danger: Below $200B
The Critical Relationship:
When Treasury needs to raise TGA (WTREGEN) (sell bonds), where does the cash come from?
- If RRP (RRPONTSYD) is high: Cash comes from RRP (RRPONTSYD) (neutral β money was just parked anyway)
- If RRP (RRPONTSYD) is zero: Cash comes from bank reserves (contractionary β real liquidity drain)
This is why 'Rising TGA (WTREGEN) + Zero RRP (RRPONTSYD) = Direct Liquidity Contraction' is one of the most potent macro signals.
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
What is the RRP (RRPONTSYD) (Reverse Repo (RRP (RRPONTSYD)ONTSYD) Facility) and why is it called a 'parking lot'?
Quiz Check
Why is 'Rising TGA (WTREGEN) + Zero RRP (RRPONTSYD)' the most contractionary scenario for liquidity?
Quiz Check
It's early 2023. The debt ceiling has been hit. Treasury cannot issue new debt. TGA (WTREGEN) is draining toward zero. What's the liquidity effect?