Lesson 1

Dalio's Big Debt Cycles

Ray Dalio identifies a long-term debt cycle (~75-100 years) distinct from the short-term business cycle (~5-10 years).

Lesson 2

The Four Levers of Deleveraging

When debt gets too high, there are only four ways out.

Lesson 3

Historical Parallels

History doesn't repeat but it rhymes.

Lesson 4

Fiscal vs Monetary Dominance

The relationship between fiscal policy (government spending/taxing) and monetary policy (central bank) determines the regime.