Lesson 2
The Four Levers of Deleveraging
In a deleveraging, favor assets that benefit from money printing (gold, real assets, Bitcoin (BTCUSD)) while being cautious of nominal bonds (eroded by inflation) and cash (loses purchasing power).
When debt gets too high, there are only four ways out. Understanding the mix tells you what's coming.
Lever 1: Austerity (Spending Less)
- Government cuts spending
- Consumers save more
- Deflationary pressure
- Politically unpopular
Lever 2: Debt Restructuring/Default
- Debts written down or off
- Painful for creditors
- Can be orderly or chaotic
- One person's asset is another's liability
Lever 3: Wealth Redistribution
- Taxes on wealthy
- Social programs for poor
- Political tension increases
- Slows economy if excessive
Lever 4: Printing Money (Monetization)
- Central bank buys government debt
- Government spends into economy
- Inflationary if excessive
- Most politically convenient
The 'Beautiful Deleveraging':
Dalio argues for a balanced mix:
- Enough austerity to be credible
- Some restructuring for the worst credits
- Modest redistribution for stability
- Enough printing to offset deflation
This creates gradual healing without depression or hyperinflation. Japan failed (too much austerity, not enough printing initially). 2020 US got closer (massive printing).
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
Of the four deleveraging levers, which is politically easiest and therefore most likely to dominate?