Lesson 1
The Complete Framework
The framework flows from longest cycle (debt) to shortest (price). Each level constrains the next. Don't trade price against regime, regime against cycle, or cycle against secular trend.
You've learned the components. Here's how they fit together.
The Hierarchy:
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Long-Term Debt Cycle (Module 12): Where are we in the 75-100 year cycle? Late stage, heading toward resolution.
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~65-Month Liquidity Cycle (Module 11): Where are we in the 5.4-year cycle? This sets your risk budget.
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Business/Credit Cycle (Modules 9-10): Where are we in the 5-10 year cycle? This sets sector allocation.
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Regime (Module 15): Which of the 4 regimes are we in? This sets asset class allocation.
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5-Basket Framework (Module 11): What do the 5 baskets say? This confirms or questions the regime.
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8 Connections (Module 14): What do the relationships say? This provides early warnings.
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Price Action (Module 18): What does price say? This provides timing.
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Risk Management (Module 19): How much to risk? This protects the portfolio.
The Daily Decision Tree:
- Check daily dashboard (5 min)
- Any alerts triggered?
- If yes: Check weekly baskets
- Assess regime stability
- If regime clear: Maintain allocations
- If transition: Reduce, reassess
- Use price for timing within regime
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
You have framework signals pointing bullish, but you have conviction in a bearish thesis from your own analysis. What should you do?