Lesson 3

Portfolio Construction

Build portfolios that can survive stress events. True diversification means assets that move differently in crisis. Most 'diversification' fails when you need it most.

πŸ“Š Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):

How you combine positions matters as much as individual positions. Here's portfolio-level thinking.

Correlation Awareness:

'Diversification' only works if assets aren't correlated. In stress:

  • Stocks, EM, commodities, crypto often correlate to 1
  • Only true diversifiers: Cash, short-term Treasuries
  • Even bonds can fail (2022)

Position Correlation:

Before adding a position, ask:

  • What else in my portfolio moves the same way?
  • Am I adding diversification or concentration?
  • In a liquidity crisis, would everything move together?

The Barbell Approach:

Extreme positions at both ends:

  • High risk assets (crypto, leverage, options)
  • Zero risk assets (cash, T-bills)
  • Avoid mediocre middle (moderate risk with moderate return)

Example: 80% T-bills + 20% BTC (BTCUSD) = barbell

Factor Exposure:

Know your factor exposures:

  • Duration (sensitive to rates)
  • Beta (sensitive to market)
  • Liquidity (sensitive to risk-off)
  • Dollar (sensitive to DXY)

The Stress Test:

Ask: 'If liquidity crashes, what survives?'

  • Cash: Survives
  • Short Treasuries: Survives (usually)
  • Everything else: Question it

Maximum Exposure Rules:

  • Any single position: Max 20%
  • Any single sector: Max 40%
  • Correlated risk assets: Max 70%
  • Must have 'survival' allocation: Min 20%

Check your understanding

Lesson Quiz

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Quiz Check

Your portfolio is 60% stocks, 20% EM, 15% crypto, 5% cash. In a stress test (liquidity crisis), what happens?