Lesson 3
Portfolio Construction
Build portfolios that can survive stress events. True diversification means assets that move differently in crisis. Most 'diversification' fails when you need it most.
π Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):
How you combine positions matters as much as individual positions. Here's portfolio-level thinking.
Correlation Awareness:
'Diversification' only works if assets aren't correlated. In stress:
- Stocks, EM, commodities, crypto often correlate to 1
- Only true diversifiers: Cash, short-term Treasuries
- Even bonds can fail (2022)
Position Correlation:
Before adding a position, ask:
- What else in my portfolio moves the same way?
- Am I adding diversification or concentration?
- In a liquidity crisis, would everything move together?
The Barbell Approach:
Extreme positions at both ends:
- High risk assets (crypto, leverage, options)
- Zero risk assets (cash, T-bills)
- Avoid mediocre middle (moderate risk with moderate return)
Example: 80% T-bills + 20% BTC (BTCUSD) = barbell
Factor Exposure:
Know your factor exposures:
- Duration (sensitive to rates)
- Beta (sensitive to market)
- Liquidity (sensitive to risk-off)
- Dollar (sensitive to DXY)
The Stress Test:
Ask: 'If liquidity crashes, what survives?'
- Cash: Survives
- Short Treasuries: Survives (usually)
- Everything else: Question it
Maximum Exposure Rules:
- Any single position: Max 20%
- Any single sector: Max 40%
- Correlated risk assets: Max 70%
- Must have 'survival' allocation: Min 20%
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
Your portfolio is 60% stocks, 20% EM, 15% crypto, 5% cash. In a stress test (liquidity crisis), what happens?