Lesson 4

The Banking System

Fed policy is just the first step. Watch how it transmits through banks (SLOOS, KRE) and shadow banks (MOVE, KKR). The actual credit reaching the economy depends on intermediaries' willingness and ability to lend.

πŸ“Š Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):

Here's a secret: Most money isn't created by the Fed. It's created by banks.

When a bank makes a loan, it doesn't lend out existing deposits. It creates new money. The loan shows up as a new deposit in the borrower's account β€” money that didn't exist before. This is how the money supply actually expands in practice.

Commercial Banks:

  • Create most money through lending (the 'credit multiplier')
  • Transmission mechanism between Fed policy and the real economy
  • Constrained by capital requirements, reserve levels, and risk appetite
  • When banks feel safe, they lend more (credit expands). When they're scared, they stop (credit contracts).

Shadow Banking: Since 2008, traditional bank lending has become a smaller share of total credit. 'Shadow banks' β€” hedge funds, private credit funds, money market funds, REITs β€” have grown to become the majority of credit intermediation.

These entities:

  • Aren't regulated like banks (less capital required)
  • Can leverage aggressively (3-10x or more)
  • Use repo markets and securities lending for funding
  • Can amplify or dampen Fed policy effects

Why Shadow Banking Matters:

The MOVE Index (MOVE) (bond volatility) controls shadow bank leverage. When MOVE is low, shadow banks can leverage up β€” effective liquidity multiplies. When MOVE spikes, they must delever β€” liquidity evaporates even if the Fed hasn't changed policy.

This is why 80% of lending now involves collateral (Howell). Understanding the collateral system is essential for understanding modern liquidity.

Check your understanding

Lesson Quiz

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Quiz Check

What is the key difference between monetary policy (Fed) and fiscal policy (Congress)?

Quiz Check

Congress passes a $2 trillion spending bill during a recession while the Fed is already at 0% rates. What type of stimulus is this and why might it be more effective than Fed action alone?