Lesson 3

The Global Central Bank Constellation

Analyze global liquidity, not just Fed policy. When the Fed is hawkish, ask: Is China easing? Is Japan maintaining zero rates? The aggregate determines risk asset trajectory.

πŸ“Š Indicators mentioned in this lesson (click for details):

The Fed isn't alone. Markets respond to TOTAL global liquidity, and other central banks matter β€” sometimes decisively.

The Major Central Banks:

PBoC (China): The world's second-largest balance sheet. China often moves counter-cyclically to the US: when the Fed tightens (fighting inflation), PBoC may ease (fighting deflation/property crisis). This 'Global Relay' can offset US tightening.

ECB (Europe): Constrained by fragmentation β€” must balance inflation fighting with preventing spread blowouts between German and Italian bonds. Their TLTRO programs and emergency interventions matter for European banks.

BoJ (Japan): The outlier. Near-zero rates for decades, yield curve (T10Y2Y) control (capping 10Y yields), and a balance sheet exceeding 100% of GDP. The BoJ enables the yen carry trade β€” arguably the largest hidden liquidity force in global markets.

BoE (UK): Smaller but systemically important. The 2022 gilt crisis showed how fast UK policy can affect global markets.

The Global Liquidity Concept:

Global Liquidity = Fed + PBoC + ECB + BoJ + BoE + others

Markets care about this aggregate. When the Fed is tightening but PBoC is easing, global liquidity may be stable or even rising. This explains why 2023 wasn't worse β€” China's easing partially offset US tightening.

The Global Relay:

'East saving West' is a real phenomenon. When US liquidity contracts, check if Asia is offsetting. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and global risk assets respond to total liquidity, not just US liquidity.

Check your understanding

Lesson Quiz

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Quiz Check

What is the TGA (WTREGEN) (Treasury General Account (WTREGEN))?

Quiz Check

When the debt ceiling is hit and Treasury cannot issue new debt, what happens to TGA (WTREGEN) and liquidity?

Quiz Check

Treasury announces it will issue $1 trillion in new bonds to rebuild TGA (WTREGEN) after a debt ceiling resolution. RRP (RRPONTSYD) is already near zero. What's the market implication?