Lesson 1
Defining Inflation Types
Distinguish between consumer inflation (CPI), asset inflation (financial markets), and monetary debasement (long-term currency erosion). Different types require different hedges. Consumer inflation: commodities, TIPS. Asset inflation: own assets. Debasement: gold, Bitcoin (BTCUSD), real assets.
When people say 'inflation,' they usually mean one thing. But there are actually several distinct types, and confusing them leads to bad analysis.
High Street Inflation (Consumer Price Inflation):
What most people mean β rising prices at the grocery store, gas pump, and mall. This is measured by CPI and PCE. It's what hurts consumers and what the Fed officially targets.
Asset Inflation:
Rising prices of financial assets: stocks, bonds, real estate, art, crypto. This is where most QE money goes β it stays in financial markets, inflating asset prices without (immediately) flowing to consumer prices.
Characteristics:
- Makes asset owners richer (wealth effect)
- Not measured in CPI
- Can create 'bubbles'
- Benefits the wealthy disproportionately
Monetary Inflation (Howell's 'Debasement'):
Deliberate depreciation of money through excess supply. When central banks create money faster than economic output grows, each unit of money becomes worth less.
The Key Insight:
2010-2020 QE didn't cause consumer inflation because the money stayed in financial assets. Banks got reserves, but they didn't lend aggressively. 2020-2022 was different: stimulus checks went directly to consumers, AND supply chains broke. Consumer inflation finally arrived.
Check your understanding
Lesson Quiz
Quiz Check
What is the difference between consumer inflation and asset inflation?
Quiz Check
Why didn't 2009-2019 QE cause high consumer inflation despite the Fed quadrupling its balance sheet?